Al Qaeda – New Bin Laden Tape Coming On 911 Anniversary
September 6, 2007 by Homeland Security NTARC News
Filed under Homeland Security News
An Islamist Web site said on Friday it would soon carry a new video of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden to mark the sixth anniversary of the September 11 attacks on U.S. cities.The Web site carried a still photograph apparently from the video which showed bin Laden seemingly aged compared to available pictures.
The site did not say when the video, produced by al Qaeda’s media arm al-Sahab, would be issued.
The al-Qaida leader has not appeared in new video footage since Oct. 29, 2004, and he has not put out a new audiotape in more than a year.
One difference in his appearance was immediately obvious. The announcement had a still photo from the upcoming video, showing bin Laden addressing the camera, his beard fully black. In his past videos, bin Laden’s beard was almost entirely gray with dark streaks.
Rita Katz, director of the SITE Institute, a Washington-based group that monitors terror messages, said bin Laden’s beard appeared to have been dyed, a popular practice among Arab leaders.
“I think it works for their (al-Qaida’s) benefit that he looks young, he looks healthy,” Katz said.
The announcement and photo appeared in a banner advertisement on an Islamic militant Web site where al-Qaida’s media arm, Al-Sahab, frequently posts messages.
“Soon, God willing, a videotape from the lion sheik Osama bin Laden, God preserve him,” the advertisement read, signed by Al-Sahab. Such announcements are usually put out one to three days before a video is posted on the Web.
IntelCenter, an Alexandria, Va.-based group that monitors Islamic Web sites, said the video was expected within the next 72 hours, before the sixth anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001 suicide hijacker attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.
This is a copy of my lecture notes for teh History of World Terrorism class I currently teach. This is by no means an expert assessment…
September 2007 Threat Assessment
1. Factors suggesting an attack is eminent
a. Arrests of al Qaeda suspects planning “spectacular” attacks
i. Denmark
ii. Germany
b. Odd financial activities
i. “Put options” betting on a market down turn by September 21, 2007
ii. These types of movements were made prior to September 11, 2001
c. Osama bin Laden video tape
i. First video of bin Laden since the autumn of 2004
ii. Concern has existed for years that since bin Laden videos are rare they may signify a “go sign” for an sleep cell attack
iii. If beard has been colored recently this could be a “hidden message”
d. Al Qaeda Promise
i. Al Qaeda has promised a “surprise” to mark the anniversary of the “invasion of Manhattan”
ii. In the past al Qaeda “surprises” were operations near completion/execution
2. Factors suggesting an attack is NOT eminent
a. Arrests of al Qaeda suspects planning “spectacular” attacks
i. Denmark
ii. Germany
iii. These guys could have been “wannabes”
iv. Attacks were not located within the United States
b. Odd financial activities
i. “Put options” betting on a market down turn by September 21, 2007
ii. These types of movements were made prior to September 11, 2001
iii. These types of financial movements may just be a sign of the uneasy financial times we are currently facing.
iv. If numerous small investors made a small “put options” looking for a big payoff it would add up to a very large sum of money
c. Osama bin Laden video tape
i. First video of bin Laden since the autumn of 2004
ii. Al Qadea always marks the 9/11 anniversary with a video or audio message
iii. Why attack when the video alone will produce publicity and fear?
iv. Video could be nothing more than a “rerun”
v. Beard could be colored black because the video is old; filmed before his beard went grey
d. Al Qaeda Promise
i. Al Qaeda has promised a “surprise” to mark the anniversary of the “invasion of Manhattan”
ii. “Surprise” could be the video message from Osama bin Laden