September 2007 Threat Assessment

1. Factors suggesting an attack is eminent
a. Arrests of al Qaeda suspects planning “spectacular” attacks
i. Denmark
ii. Germany
b. Odd financial activities
i. “Put options” betting on a market down turn by September 21, 2007
ii. These types of movements were made prior to September 11, 2001
c. Osama bin Laden video tape
i. First video of bin Laden since the autumn of 2004
ii. Concern has existed for years that since bin Laden videos are rare they may signify a “go sign” for an sleep cell attack
iii. If beard has been colored recently this could be a “hidden message”
d. Al Qaeda Promise
i. Al Qaeda has promised a “surprise” to mark the anniversary of the “invasion of Manhattan”
ii. In the past al Qaeda “surprises” were operations near completion/execution

2. Factors suggesting an attack is NOT eminent
a. Arrests of al Qaeda suspects planning “spectacular” attacks
i. Denmark
ii. Germany
iii. These guys could have been “wannabes”
iv. Attacks were not located within the United States
b. Odd financial activities
i. “Put options” betting on a market down turn by September 21, 2007
ii. These types of movements were made prior to September 11, 2001
iii. These types of financial movements may just be a sign of the uneasy financial times we are currently facing.
iv. If numerous small investors made a small “put options” looking for a big payoff it would add up to a very large sum of money
c. Osama bin Laden video tape
i. First video of bin Laden since the autumn of 2004
ii. Al Qadea always marks the 9/11 anniversary with a video or audio message
iii. Why attack when the video alone will produce publicity and fear?
iv. Video could be nothing more than a “rerun”
v. Beard could be colored black because the video is old; filmed before his beard went grey
d. Al Qaeda Promise
i. Al Qaeda has promised a “surprise” to mark the anniversary of the “invasion of Manhattan”
ii. “Surprise” could be the video message from Osama bin Laden