U.S. Increases Raids To Thwart al-Qaeda October Surprise Terror Plot

It appears that speculation of an October Surprise terror attack by al Qaeda is being taken seriously by U.S. secret service forces.

According to the Telegraph, US secret forces are intensifying their cross-border raids into Pakistani tribal areas because of fears of a high-profile al-Qaeda attack during the American election campaign.

The Pentagon has ordered that raids on suspected terrorist targets within Pakistan be stepped up to pressurise al-Qaeda leaders and distract them from preparing attacks on American targets elsewhere.

“The aim is to disrupt their scope for planning and keep their leaders on the move so that it is more difficult for them to co-ordinate complicated plots,” a senior US intelligence official told The Sunday Telegraph.

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The approach of the US election has fuelled fears that al Qaeda or its allies, including the increasingly active Haqqani network, will seek a headline-grabbing strike against a symbolic American target such as an overseas embassy.

Last week’s devastating truck bomb attack on Islamabad’s Marriott Hotel further highlighted security concerns in Pakistan. The blast claimed the lives of 53 people, including two US military personnel, the Czech ambassador and a Danish intelligence officer.

“The level of sophistication and destruction was a message to the international community and the Pakistanis that we can pretty much hit you any place, any time,” said Seth Jones, a senior regional analyst with the Rand Corporation, a leading security think-tank.

Kamran Bokhari, Middle East director at Stratfor, an intelligence analysis company, said that the scale of the attack – involving up to 1,000 kilogrammes of explosives – was a clear indication that al Qaeda or its allies were involved.

“The target and modus operandi have the signature of a sophisticated jihadi operation,” he said. “The hotel is in a very sensitive area. If they can hit the Marriott, why can’t they hit courts or ministries or the prime minister’s house?”

Against this backdrop, a senior US intelligence official said that al Qaeda was seeking to stafe a major attack on an American target close to the election, to test the new president-elect.

“Their goal would not be to influence the election but merely to send a message that they are still a force to be reckoned with,” the official said. “They know that a successful attack in the election season will have maximum impact, and they want to give the new president the jitters.”

Any attack in the weeks before the Nov 4 election – what is known in American political circles as an “October surprise” – would almost certainly give a decisive boost to John McCain, the Republican candidate who already holds a commanding lead on questions of national security.

The US has for several years attacked suspected militant bases inside Pakistan with missiles fired from Predator drones. Tribesmen regularly shoot at the unmanned aircraft, although both the US and Pakistan rejected claims that a drone that crashed near the border last week was broight down by gunfire.

But in July, Mr Bush approved classified orders authorising special operations forces to conduct ground assaults inside Pakistan without seeking Islamabad’s approval after his commanders presented him with evidence about the militants’ increasingly secure bases in the tribal areas. Small commando units are flown in and out by helicopter for precisions raids.

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US steps up Pakistan raids to thwart al-Qaeda ‘October surprise’ plot – Telegraph