Mumbai – New Template For Terror

Several recent articles related to the Mumbai attacks indicate that terror operations and the manner in which they are carried out are becoming much more sophisticated. We’ve included excerpts from just a few.
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Sixty hours in Mumbai have begun to change the calculus of global terrorism.

New reports suggest that both Indian and American intelligence agencies had foreseen the threat to Mumbai (formerly Bombay). Yet the manner of the attack – with 10 heavily armed, highly trained fighters clinically fanning out across the city – meant that no “police force anywhere would have been prepared to counter this type of operation,” says Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism analyst at Georgetown University in Washington.

Armed sieges are not a new terrorist tactic, but never before has one been used to such effect. Some experts suggest this could be the most sophisticated terrorist attack since 9/11. Now, other militants might consider copycat operations – and the world’s cities will have to be ready for them.

“It was not so much of a success in terms of people killed – it was more the publicity they got for three days, and their ability to project the Indian state … as helpless,” says B. Raman, former head of counterterrorism for Indian top intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW). “Others will want to repeat it,” he predicts.

Indians’ anger toward their government continued to mount Tuesday as several reports indicated that there was specific intelligence pointing to an attack on Mumbai from the sea – the way the terrorists entered the city.

On Sept. 18 and 24, RAW intercepted two satellite phone calls in which a member of the Pakistani militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba discussed an operation that would attack Mumbai by boat, according to the Hindustan Times, an Indian newspaper. One call mentioned the Taj Mahal Hotel, where the last fighter was killed Saturday.

Moreover, a US counterterrorism official told CNN Tuesday that “the United States warned the Indian government about a potential maritime attack against Mumbai at least a month before last week’s massacre in Mumbai.”

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Mumbai: Islamist Terror’s New Modus Operandi

The new modus operandi was to attack soft targets, including major landmarks and also kill foreign nationals. While some al-Qaida affiliates – in particular al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb – have recently switched to focusing on soft targets because the hard targets are becoming so well protected, the tactics used in Mumbai are new.

Unmasked assailers walking into public places indiscriminately shooting with machine guns, throwing grenades and also taking hostages – and this for 60 hours, all while it is being documented on world TV.

Compared to a classical car bomb or suicide attack, this tactic has the advantage for the terrorists of remaining in the news for a much longer time. It has also a much higher psychological value on the population: it kills the feeling of security since terrorists can hit anywhere. Also, by attacking foreigners, the terrorists want to create panic in the Western community and project a negative image of India. Thus by shaking confidence, they want to cripple the Indian economy and dry up foreign investment.

What is most worrisome about this new modus operandi is that 10 terrorists were able to inflict so much damage, kill so many people and hold hostage an 18-million-people megalopolis for 60 hours. Imagine how much more horrible it could have been if they were 50, 100 or 500.

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New Terrorist Threat–”Jihadi Infantry”

The Mumbai attack is complex. A number of small operations created widespread chaos, triggering security deployment in many areas, while more precise operations targeted higher targets such as hostage taking or similar situation. We will know more as the investigations expands. But it appears this attack was many months in planning. Most importantly, the Mumbai operation launches a very new type of outrage, fear and international instability.

Perpetrators

In view of the historical context, precedents and latest analysis, the most likely groups that may be behind these attacks are the Lashkar-e-Taiba/SIMI (they now call themselves “Indian Mujahedeen”). These groups are jihadists, have links to the other organizations in Kashmir but also inside Pakistan with pro-Taliban elements and eventually up to Al Qaeda, which sits at the apex. Their ideological identification is most likely jihadist although the exact “responsible group” almost surely will issue a more than one release to claim the attack and put it in context. By whatever moniker, their attack is part of an ongoing struggle between jihadis and the Indian state. In October, Indian security forces arrested several Indian Mujahedeen members. Those arrests were a response to attacks in other cities. So, the Mumbai massacres are part of a chain of events.

It is important to remember that Al-Qaeda is the centre of a web. They sit among the Taliban. In Pakistan, the Taliban and the Lashkar-e-Taiba and the Jaish-e-Mohammed are all interlinked. Hence, we are dealing with a transnational force, stretching geopolitically from Afghanistan to India. These organizations learn from each other. In India, the jihadis are simply applying the Al-Qaeda model, even if they are not organically a part of it.

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What’s relevant about the Mumbai model is that it would work in just about any second-tier city in any democratic state: Seize multiple soft targets, and overwhelm the municipal infrastructure to the point where any emergency plan will simply be swamped by the sheer scale of events. Try it in, say, Mayor Nagin’s New Orleans. All you need is the manpower. Given the numbers of gunmen, clearly there was a significant local component. On the other hand, whether or not Pakistan’s deeply sinister ISI had their fingerprints all over it, it would seem unlikely that there was no external involvement. After all, if you look at every jihad front from the London Tube bombings to the Iraqi insurgency, you’ll find local lads and wily outsiders: That’s pretty much a given.

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