U.S. Military Report Warns Sudden Collapse of Mexico Is Possible
January 14, 2009 by national
Filed under Homeland Security News
Mexico is one of two countries that “bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse,” according to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command on worldwide security threats.
The command’s “Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)” report, which contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. “In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.
“The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.”
The U.S. Joint Forces Command, based in Norfolk, Va., is one of the Defense Departments combat commands that includes members of the different military service branches, active and reserves, as well as civilian and contract employees. One of its key roles is to help transform the U.S. military’s capabilities.
In the foreword, Marine Gen. J.N. Mattis, the USJFC commander, said “Predictions about the future are always risky … Regardless, if we do not try to forecast the future, there is no doubt that we will be caught off guard as we strive to protect this experiment in democracy that we call America.”
The report is one in a series focusing on Mexico’s internal security problems, mostly stemming from drug violence and drug corruption. In recent weeks, the Department of Homeland Security and former U.S. drug czar Barry McCaffrey issued similar alerts about Mexico.
Despite such reports, El Pasoan Veronica Callaghan, a border business leader, said she keeps running into people in the region who “are in denial about what is happening in Mexico.”
Last week, Mexican President Felipe Calderon instructed his embassy and consular officials to promote a positive image of Mexico.
http://www.elpasotimes.com/newupdated/ci_11444354
U.S. military report warns ’sudden collapse’ of Mexico is possible – El Paso Times
The drug war is getting rather expensive, isn’t it?
The actual report is a great read at how we view the future of South and Central America as a whole. Mexico has along been a problem and by most accounts will reach critical mass in the near future. That will require some kind of response from the United States of America, which is likely to be a military one.
The dates on the report 2025 are as far as JFCOM is willing to project its estimates based on current information. What this means is that Mexico, or any of the predictions in the report, could happen between now and then. So far, the report has been accurate about many of the conflicts and issues facing the globe and the USA today.
Effective immigration control alone will not be what dissolves this issue with Mexico. It will require a forceful intervention on behalf of the USA and other nation-states in order to shore up the Mexican federal government. However, that may not be enough due to the corruption within the government. Meaning that we very well could see a second Mexican/American War with dire consequences for not only Mexican territory but the southwestern United States of America.
Hmmmmm….wasn’t it just recently word was spread that U.S. Forces may be deploying to our border areas? I wonder if that was just a “heads-up” on this issue?
Personally, I don’t think Mexico will collapse anytime in the near future.
What?? Mexico??
Wow, I guess the cartels are busier than ANYONE has noticed before now…
Aside from the occasional tourist being killed in their resort, I didn’t think things were that bad down there…
Guess I’ll have to look at alternatives for holiday time…
Throughout both America and Mexico’s history we have been both friend as well as enemy. The only way I see a solution to our countries dilemma is a complete change of government, meaning of course by forceful means.
If someone could think outside the box think about this?
What if the common Mexican citizen partnered with American’s might overthrew the existing governing foundations to include the cartels? By destroying the corrupt institutions to include its infrastructure, the Mexican people could with our help of course, build a new “Mexican State” a state of the Union! They would elect their own into the exact constitutional government we enjoy with all rights, responsibilities thereof? Mexico’s flag would become its state flag.
Mexico, as a state, could be free to thrive in its own entrepreneurial spirit allowing opportunities beyond imagination! There would be no more border guard, only a sign that would say… welcome to the “Great State of Mexico” enjoy your stay. Just think about it? Better educational opportunities for all New Citizens of Mexico, medical, housing, real careers in every field and juncture. A new and improved freeway system, the list could go on.
So much of Mexico is already here, and in many ways, we American’s are apart of Mexico, there is just no ignoring it any longer.
So, this is my comment, my opinion, it is only my say.
Thank you,
Gary B.
Bakersfield, Ca.
It should be no suprise to anyone. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the era of multi-nation, large scale warfare has become much less of a threat to national security. However, we have entered a new era where small, loosely organized private groups (with their own petty agendas)now have the capabilty to destroy nations from within and wage wars far from their homeland.
Ref. Gary Bowen’s comment above…. With our current situation (financial problems and being at war on two fronts)I don’t think this would be a good idea. That may not be a bad idea sometime in the future when we get “ourselves” back on-track. Let’s see what President Obama does.
Cartels would be broke FAST, if SOME NEW President decriminalized and taxed pot,(ALSO getting him out of the financial RED the former administration has left him with,) and placed it into CHEAP cigarette packs like tabaco and Fed taxed it to relive our huge deficits.
Oh and Imagine if non viloent criminals stopped getting free room and board?
Wow, how many Bilion could we save sending them once a month for therapy instead.
Too senible and simple for our Government charade?
Why do we make the prices that fince Cartel protected with arcane laws… or were we in with the whole idea from the get go.
They repaid the loan we made a while back… wonder where that money came from?
Are we all expected to remain stupid and ignorant of the simple dynamics?
USA ALL THE WAY.
STOP THE BUNK !
Yeah then we could all be really smart and stoned at the same time – please – get real. If you study other countries who have legalized drugs you will find that the number of addicts increases along with crime and violence; therefore, costs are increased not decreased. And I’m sure the threat of monthly therapy would be a HUGE crime deterrent. The truth is there are no simple solutions to complex problems. I like the picture described above with Mexico as part of the U.S. – maybe not as a state but at least as a territory. Mexico has great beaches and oil too. But can we afford to expend the resources necessary or can we ill afford not to? If Mexico becomes a haven for our enemies, what cost then? At one time people use to say that Mexico would love to be a part of the U.S. It would be cool if there could be a diplomatic joining of Mexico to U.S. Hey, there’s nothing wrong with dreaming – and I don’t need pot to do it either.
I don’t want a third world country to bring down my country.
First, I’m mystified why our Homeland Security Director, Janet Napolitano, cites Afghanistan and the US northern border as her priority concerns. We have no enforceable “border” with Mexico, nor the will to assert one. If we accepted . . .and I do mean ACCEPTED Mexico’s PLEA for US intervention or acceptance as a US Territory or state. . . there’d just be another border further south to “enforce”. (How about the Panama Canal
Combining a failed state with our own failed economy is, in the least, concerning. Finally, despite the success of the “surge” and “COIN” in correcting our bungling effort to Iraq and the free world from Hussein (Saddam), some among us are consumed with national fear and self-loathing of US hegemony. Cartels would rise up disguised as “civilians” to liberate Mexico from its northern “oppressors” and would likely win a propaganda war. The U.S. media has been enthusiastically helpful in feeding its consumers negative, self-hating hype. Case in point: broadcasting protests against a US ally defending itself from attacks by a terrorist organization. (Last time I looked, Hamas is recognized by the US and EU as a terrorist organization, whose charter is to defeat Israel and put in its place an Islamic State). If we haven’t the will to stand beside and ally under attack, and we aren’t informed enough to recognize progress in Iraq, I can’t have much confidence in our putting boots on the ground to stabilize Mexico, even with an “engraved invitation” from the Mexicans. It isn’t going well in Pakistan, whose “government” and “military” parallels Mexico’s.
Mexico’s biggest problem has always been the stratification of the rich and very poor. They have never had a working middle class and have not been able to develop an economy that can sustain or grow one. Mexico is very similar to medieval Europe, where there was a small group of wealthy landowners with huge tracts of land and a very large population of tenants (peasants) that farmed the owners land.
.
However, over the past 10-15 years more and more drug cartels are taking up business in Mexico, especially in towns along our southern border to simplify business. Why ship your drugs across the caribbean or atlantic and risk getting caught by the coast guard, when you can simply walk across a 2,600 mile open border with the US? In fact these cartels are using illegals, and by using I mean paying them to illegally immigrate to the US while backpacking drugs with them on there journay to the US. If you think about it, its actually quite smart as this allows the cartels to ship large quantities of drugs through many many carriers while not endangering the entire shipment through one major bust (although this still happens every once in a while). This system of corruption and cooperation is bringing new wealth to Mexico and allowing millions a means to escape that toilet of a county, south of our border.
.
How are the cartels doing this, you might ask? Well through bribes, intimidation and murder. Mexican Gangs/Cartels have systematically taken over the cities and border crossings in Mexico in order to smuggle weapons to there side and use untraceable illegal immigrants to carry drugs to the US side. On the US side especially in California and the Southwest, Mexicans have set up huge gang/drug rings that distribute there product with devastating effect. They are some of the most violent criminals now in the US judicial system and are an evergrowing threat to cities and government agencies in the US.
.
Once Mexico’s government is completely corrupted (up to the federal level), there will be systematic attacks on our border fences, execution style killings of law enforcement officials, public officials, federal officials, border agents, and people that generally get in there way.
.
With the help of illegal immigrants we will be fighting not only the drug cartels, but a continually desperate population south of the border as the situation degenerates into absolute chaos.
.
The only solution to this problem is to finish the fence and set up a 50′ wide minefield between our two borders. Quadruple the border patrol agents and use national guard troops, with orders to shoot to kill anyone that tries to run the border. These actions will almost immediately hault drug smuggling and there illegal immigrant runners into the US. It will also cut off millions of dopers in the US and prices will sky rocket in the US to the point that the whole drug industry goes under. Along with a systematic legalization of pot, a completely harmless drug, the cartels will be broke and bankrupt in no time.