Implications of Taliban Leader Baitullah Mehsud’s Death

U.S. and Pakistani officials say they are heartened by signs of a rift between Pakistani Taliban factions following the apparent death of militant leader Baitullah Mehsud.
Mehsud was the overall head of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), or Taliban Movement of Pakistan, a loose alliance of 13 factions. He is believed to have been killed in a U.S. missile strike on August 5.

Following are some possible outcomes of Mehsud’s death and the impact on Pakistan, Afghanistan and Western countries that have troops there.

CHAOS IN TALIBAN RANKS

Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi told a joint news conference with U.S. special envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan Richard Holbrooke on Sunday that there was confusion, disarray and many reports of infighting within the TTP following the report of Mehsud’s death. Holbrooke told reporters traveling with him to Pakistan that Mehsud was “gone” and it looked as if there was a struggle for succession among his commanders.

A splintering of the Taliban would be a major coup for Pakistan, hindering the militants’ ability to conduct coordinated attacks, as the estimated 20,000 to 30,000 fighters under Mehsud’s command are subsumed by various rival commanders.

Mehsud’s fighters are already facing tremendous pressure after security forces cordoned off their strongholds in South Waziristan as part of a government order to the military in June to pursue Mehsud and his group. They are also facing regular strikes by pilot less U.S. drone aircraft, such as the one that apparently killed Mehsud.

Analysts say Mehsud’s death could demoralize his loyalists and could enable the government to exploit divisions by winning over moderate militants to isolate more hard-core elements.

via SCENARIOS: Implications of Pakistani Taliban leader’s death | Reuters.