al Qaeda and The Election – Out-thinking A Canny Enemy

Americans are not the only ones caught up in this year’s presidential election. The nature of the race, having an African American and a woman on the major parties’ tickets, alongside two wars and an economic crisis of historic proportions, has proven captivating to people throughout the world.

But while our friends across Europe, the Middle East, and Asia are watching the race closely, America’s enemies are also watching from the mountain villages where Osama Bin Laden’s followers are hiding out.

Al Qaida is following the race intensely because fear and destruction are the principal aims of terrorist groups. It is fear and the resulting chaos on which terrorist groups feed.

The fog following a terrorist attack is thick, and it often leads many to support decisions that may not advance America’s security interests. Worse, these decisions often play into the hands of the terrorists who attacked the US by increasing their popularity.

Examples of this abound, but the US invasion of Iraq in the wake of 9/11 is perhaps the most pronounced example. The war, the administration’s use of torture on captured prisoners, and its disregard for international treaties was fodder for Al Qaida. As world opinion of the United States sank, recruiting people became easier.

No coincidence

It is this climate that Al Qaida looks to create – a climate that is borne of fear and results in American actions that serve Al Qaida’s own interests. To strike the greatest amount of fear in civilians, terrorist groups wait to act until an event or time period that will amplify their attack. The tail end of a presidential campaign is one such opportunity.

While this campaign has been the longest in American history, a significant number of Americans are only now deciding on their choice. It is these final weeks of the political campaign that find Americans closely attuned to news and the statements of the candidates.

For this reason, what happens between now until Election Day can have a greater impact on public opinion than during any other period in the campaign.

It was no coincidence that on October 29, 2004 – the final days of the John Kerry and George W. Bush presidential campaign – Bin Laden released a video message saying Al Qaida was intent on attacking the United States. This period was when large numbers of Americans were watching the news.

The same tactic, with deadlier results, was used earlier that year in Spain, when terrorists attacked Madrid trains only days before that country’s elections.

Al Qaida may likely look to exploit this year’s election by releasing a video message from Bin Laden or his deputy Ayman Al Zawahiri, or worse, staging an attack – something some have called an “October surprise”.

Source – Full Article Gulfnews

FBI Watching For Possible al Qaeda Trained Americans

World Net Daily is reporting the FBI is on the lookout for Americans who may possibly be returning to the US from al Qaeda training camps in Pakistan.

A coast-to-coast dragnet has been launched partly in response to leads developed in the arrest of one of al-Qaida’s “fixers” in the U.S., say FBI officials. Read more

U.S. Increases Raids To Thwart al-Qaeda October Surprise Terror Plot

It appears that speculation of an October Surprise terror attack by al Qaeda is being taken seriously by U.S. secret service forces.

According to the Telegraph, US secret forces are intensifying their cross-border raids into Pakistani tribal areas because of fears of a high-profile al-Qaeda attack during the American election campaign.

The Pentagon has ordered that raids on suspected terrorist targets within Pakistan be stepped up to pressurise al-Qaeda leaders and distract them from preparing attacks on American targets elsewhere.

“The aim is to disrupt their scope for planning and keep their leaders on the move so that it is more difficult for them to co-ordinate complicated plots,” a senior US intelligence official told The Sunday Telegraph.

[...]

The approach of the US election has fuelled fears that al Qaeda or its allies, including the increasingly active Haqqani network, will seek a headline-grabbing strike against a symbolic American target such as an overseas embassy.

Last week’s devastating truck bomb attack on Islamabad’s Marriott Hotel further highlighted security concerns in Pakistan. The blast claimed the lives of 53 people, including two US military personnel, the Czech ambassador and a Danish intelligence officer.

“The level of sophistication and destruction was a message to the international community and the Pakistanis that we can pretty much hit you any place, any time,” said Seth Jones, a senior regional analyst with the Rand Corporation, a leading security think-tank.

Kamran Bokhari, Middle East director at Stratfor, an intelligence analysis company, said that the scale of the attack – involving up to 1,000 kilogrammes of explosives – was a clear indication that al Qaeda or its allies were involved.

“The target and modus operandi have the signature of a sophisticated jihadi operation,” he said. “The hotel is in a very sensitive area. If they can hit the Marriott, why can’t they hit courts or ministries or the prime minister’s house?”

Against this backdrop, a senior US intelligence official said that al Qaeda was seeking to stafe a major attack on an American target close to the election, to test the new president-elect.

“Their goal would not be to influence the election but merely to send a message that they are still a force to be reckoned with,” the official said. “They know that a successful attack in the election season will have maximum impact, and they want to give the new president the jitters.”

Any attack in the weeks before the Nov 4 election – what is known in American political circles as an “October surprise” – would almost certainly give a decisive boost to John McCain, the Republican candidate who already holds a commanding lead on questions of national security.

The US has for several years attacked suspected militant bases inside Pakistan with missiles fired from Predator drones. Tribesmen regularly shoot at the unmanned aircraft, although both the US and Pakistan rejected claims that a drone that crashed near the border last week was broight down by gunfire.

But in July, Mr Bush approved classified orders authorising special operations forces to conduct ground assaults inside Pakistan without seeking Islamabad’s approval after his commanders presented him with evidence about the militants’ increasingly secure bases in the tribal areas. Small commando units are flown in and out by helicopter for precisions raids.

[...]

US steps up Pakistan raids to thwart al-Qaeda ‘October surprise’ plot – Telegraph

Terror Attack Directives Appear On Internet – May Signal Pending Strike

Commandments before the strike. In depth report from Homeland Security US on an Internet post containing detailed instructions that may signal a pending terror attack. This report has not been confirmed by U.S. Intelligence or Law Enforcement.

From Homeland Security US

A posting uncovered in an Arabic language Internet forum is currently raising a few eyebrows in the intelligence community. The single posting, which is presently being scrutinized by intelligence officials, appears to provide detailed instructions for Muslims living within the United States, giving them specific actions to take before, during and after an upcoming attack in the U.S. The communication was discovered by “Archangel,” a well-known independent intelligence analyst active within the intelligence community.

The post was initially published on August 2, 2008 under the title “Commandments [Directives] Before the Strike,” and appears to be a sort of a conflict management guide, or instructions on what Muslims should do prior to the attack, actions that should be undertaken concurrent with the attack, and well as additional instructions following the attack.

The text addressing the nature, location and timing of the planned attack, although specific to the U.S., appears otherwise ambiguous. For instance, the timing appears to focus on the Tuesday following the end of Ramadan, which would be October 7, 2008. The nature of the attack is less clear. Although the author appears to talk about a strike greater in magnitude than the 9/11 attacks and makes reference to the possibility of it being nuclear in nature, the text references to the nuclear aspect of the attack appear somewhat muddled.

In terms of the location of the attack, it is clear that the author identifies both New York, as the financial capital of the U.S., and Washington, DC, as the nation’s capital, as being both desirable and affected. It is interesting that under analysis, the details of “the attack” referenced by the author are nestled within the text of instructions, rather than being prominently placed to serve as an overt warning as seen in the past. The relative subtlety in which the targets and type of attack was referenced is most interesting from a historical and analytical perspective.

SPECIAL REPORT: “Commandments Before The Strike”

- ALERT: Instructions for actions Muslims are to take before, during & after an attack in the U.S. posted;

- Message suggests activation of worldwide jihad following U.S. attack;

- Message indicates large-scale attack within the U.S., perhaps early October;

Read Full Article

October Surprise – Jeffrey Goldberg’s Interview With Steve Coll

Jeffrey Goldberg speaks with Steve Coll, author of, “The Bin Ladens” on the possibility of an al Qaeda October surprise terror attack.

The Interview

When you want cogent thinking about terrorism, you go to Steve Coll. Which is what I did this morning: Read more

October Surprise – Spies Warn al Qaeda May Be Plotting Terror Attacks

October Surprise – There is growing speculation that al Qaeda may be plotting additional terror attacks both abroad and in the US leading up to the US Presidential elections.

In the aftermath of two major terrorist attacks on Western targets, America’s counterterrorism community is warning that Al Qaeda may launch more overseas operations to influence the presidential elections in November. Read more