James Carafano – Predicting The Next Bomb Plot

Excellent article by James Carafano in the San Francisco Examiner.

First, news flash: The terrorists will continue to target passenger aviation. Gravity works. Any successful attack on an airplane will likely have catastrophic results.

Moreover, when you attack a plane, you attack a network. Bring down one plane, and the whole worldwide system of passenger aviation goes into shock.

Aviation targets are also attractive because there are an almost infinite number of domestic and international entry points to the system. Odds are, though, future attacks will still pass through major flight hubs: International airports offer more flights, bigger planes and more potential victims.

Second, don’t hold your breath waiting for the next shoe-bomb to drop. Al-Qaida has gone years between aviation plots. In 1995, it planned to take down 11 U.S.-bound international flights with liquid explosives. The “Bojinka Plot” failed al-Qaida. They waited until 2006 before trying to mount the next liquid-explosive attack.

Read Full Article – San Francisco Examiner.

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